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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 15, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

San Jose Sharks 1, Washington Capitals 4

Away

San Jose Sharks

1

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.

WSH winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS1130807128
WSH11727112436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:21WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:07SJSBenn FerrieroAssists: Scott Nichol, Kent Huskins · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:55WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Mike Knuble, Brendan Morrison · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 3:23WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Mike Knuble, Brendan Morrison · Slap, 0.32 xG1–3
  5. P3 5:11WSHMatt BradleyAssists: Milan Jurcina · Slap, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:51SJSKent Huskins: Holding2 min
  2. P1 5:33SJSJed Ortmeyer: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P1 6:43SJSScott Nichol: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 15:28SJSDerek Joslin: High sticking2 min
  5. P1 17:49SJSEvgeni Nabokov: Holding2 min
  6. P2 0:32WSHMilan Jurcina: Kneeing2 min
  7. P2 7:05WSHShaone Morrisonn: Holding2 min
  8. P3 13:38WSHShaone Morrisonn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Thornton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSWSH
28Shots on goal36
1.1Expected goals2.6
43Shot attempts66
29Faceoffs won27
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
13Hits11
15Blocked shots10
8Giveaways8
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 2.6 xGSJS 1.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #898 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.94 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.

WSH winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).