Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 14, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.

CAR winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT19114011042338
CAR08010210011229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:24PITMike RuppAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:27PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
  3. P3 4:25CARRay WhitneyAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Joe Corvo · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P3 10:04CARRay WhitneyAssists: Tim Gleason, Tuomo Ruutu · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. CAR Sergei Samsonov stopped
  2. 2. PIT Kris Letang stopped
  3. 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen scored
  4. 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
  5. 5. CAR Tuomo Ruutu stopped
  6. 6. PIT Bill Guerin stopped
  7. 7. CAR Matt Cullen stopped
  8. 8. PIT Alex Goligoski stopped
  9. 9. CAR Ray Whitney stopped
  10. 10. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
  11. 11. CAR Eric Staal stopped
  12. 12. PIT Chris Kunitz scored
Penalties (7)
  1. P2 8:47PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
  2. P2 8:59CARTuomo Ruutu: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 11:48CARAaron Ward: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 13:39PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 16:59CARStephane Yelle: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 13:04PITMike Rupp: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 16:19CARAaron Ward: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITCAR
38Shots on goal29
2.9Expected goals2.5
67Shot attempts58
19Faceoffs won24
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
32Hits48
14Blocked shots15
3Giveaways5
3Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 2.5 xGPIT 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #290 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.81 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.

CAR winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).