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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 15, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Ottawa Senators 7

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

1

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 92% of the time.

OTT winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL061605117
OTT21431328735

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:25OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:22OTTMilan MichalekSHGWGAssists: Jarkko Ruutu · Wrist, 0.49 xG0–2
  3. P2 5:41OTTMilan MichalekSHAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Anton Volchenkov · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
  4. P2 6:15OTTAlexandre PicardAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–4
  5. P2 10:59OTTNick FolignoAssists: Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–5
  6. P2 14:26TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.07 xG1–5
  7. P3 11:39OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–6
  8. P3 17:01OTTJarkko RuutuAssists: Chris Kelly, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–7
Penalties (24)
  1. P1 8:47OTTAlex Kovalev: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 13:37TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min
  3. P1 19:43OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 19:43TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 19:43OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 2:18TBLZenon Konopka: Interference2 min
  7. P2 3:28OTTMilan Michalek: Interference2 min
  8. P2 4:09OTTMatt Carkner: Holding2 min
  9. P2 7:16OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 7:16TBLMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 7:16OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 17:11TBLAlex Tanguay: Holding2 min
  13. P2 0:00OTTChris Phillips: Fighting5 min
  14. P2 0:00OTTAnton Volchenkov: Roughing2 min
  15. P2 0:00TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  16. P2 0:00TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  17. P2 0:00TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 11:04TBLMattias Ohlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  19. P3 11:57OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  20. P3 11:57TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
  21. P3 11:57OTTMatt Carkner: Holding2 min
  22. P3 11:57OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
  23. P3 11:57TBLZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
  24. P3 17:24TBLJeff Halpern: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLOTT
17Shots on goal35
1.6Expected goals4.8
47Shot attempts60
27Faceoffs won26
6Power plays6
41Penalty minutes41
18Hits24
14Blocked shots14
6Giveaways5
5Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 4.8 xGTBL 1.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1058 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.54 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 92% of the time.

OTT winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).