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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 15, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Chicago Blackhawks 3, Nashville Predators 1

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.

NSH winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI01227111330
NSH051602113

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:21CHIDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:49CHITomas KopeckyGWGAssists: Colin Fraser · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
  3. P2 3:36NSHMartin EratAssists: Ryan Suter, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
  4. P3 7:07CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 2:12NSHFrancis Bouillon: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 9:26CHIDave Bolland: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 14:51NSHDavid Legwand: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P2 15:25CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 19:06CHIDave Bolland: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Wilson won the faceoff against Toews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHINSH
30Shots on goal13
2.3Expected goals1.4
49Shot attempts42
26Faceoffs won24
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
10Hits18
16Blocked shots9
7Giveaways7
11Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 1.4 xGCHI 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #996 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.95 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.

NSH winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).