Skip to content
Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 16, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Atlanta Thrashers 4, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.

NJD winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL041936419
NJD01515110230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 8:07NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Bryce Salvador · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 14:57ATLRich PeverleyPPAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–1
  3. P3 1:36ATLEvander KaneAssists: Mark Popovic · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P3 5:55ATLRich PeverleyPPGWGAssists: Nik Antropov, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
  5. P3 13:10NJDZach PariseAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Bryce Salvador · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
  6. P3 16:49ATLChris ThorburnSHAssists: Toby Enstrom, Marty Reasoner · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 13:44ATLEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
  2. P2 8:12ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 8:12NJDAndrew Peters: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 8:50NJDRob Niedermayer: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 8:50ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 10:37ATLRich Peverley: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 13:06NJDRod Pelley: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  8. P2 15:06ATLEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
  9. P2 17:40NJDMike Mottau: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 4:09NJDColin White: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P3 7:53ATLMark Popovic: Holding2 min
  12. P3 9:45ATLZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 15:42ATLZach Bogosian: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against White
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLNJD
19Shots on goal30
2.2Expected goals3.4
33Shot attempts61
24Faceoffs won30
3Power plays6
19Penalty minutes13
4Hits8
14Blocked shots9
0Giveaways5
3Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 3.4 xGATL 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #623 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.51 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.

NJD winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).