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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 16, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Philadelphia Flyers 2, Florida Panthers 4

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.

FLA winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI191908226
FLA0721229428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:35PHIArron AshamAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:49FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:14PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:06FLANathan HortonAssists: Jordan Leopold, Stephen Weiss · Slap, 0.17 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:02FLARadek DvorakSHGWGAssists: Bryan Allen · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P3 18:40FLASteve ReinprechtENAssists: Rostislav Olesz, Michael Frolik · Slap, 0.69 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 15:36PHIMatt Carle: High sticking2 min
  2. P2 3:22FLAGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 3:22PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min · PPG
  4. P2 4:03FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 4:03PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 6:40PHIChris Pronger: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 12:31FLAMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 2:54PHIBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 6:07FLADavid Booth: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Campbell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIFLA
26Shots on goal28
2.4Expected goals2.8
53Shot attempts58
28Faceoffs won33
2Power plays3
16Penalty minutes14
28Hits27
18Blocked shots8
3Giveaways8
1Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.8 xGPHI 2.4 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 54/100 · #553 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.63 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.

FLA winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).