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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 16, 2009·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Boston Bruins 3, Dallas Stars 0

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.

DAL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS11421104329
DAL07010010027

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:32BOSMarc SavardPPGWGAssists: Marco Sturm, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:35BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Mark Stuart, Mark Recchi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P2 7:59BOSMarc SavardAssists: Michael Ryder, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 0:18BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 13:03DALMike Ribeiro: High sticking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 19:05BOSShawn Thornton: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 11:39BOSChuck Kobasew: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSDAL
29Shots on goal27
1.6Expected goals2.3
56Shot attempts63
32Faceoffs won23
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
37Hits31
24Blocked shots16
7Giveaways10
5Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 2.3 xGBOS 1.6 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 5/100 · #1164 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.60 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.

DAL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).