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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 16, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Vancouver Canucks 3, Calgary Flames 5

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.

CGY winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN01101038329
CGY2123705524

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:18CGYCurtis GlencrossSHAssists: Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:50CGYNigel DawesPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Cory Sarich · Deflected, 0.23 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:38CGYDion PhaneufAssists: Daymond Langkow, Robyn Regehr · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
  4. P2 9:16CGYDustin BoydGWGAssists: Brandon Prust, Brian McGrattan · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–4
  5. P2 11:33CGYBrian McGrattanAssists: Dustin Boyd, Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
  6. P3 6:55VANRick RypienAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
  7. P3 17:02VANMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Steve Bernier, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–5
  8. P3 17:43VANChristian EhrhoffPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 2:32CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:32VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 2:32CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 2:32VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 2:51VANHenrik Sedin: Interference2 min
  6. P1 7:05CGYAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 9:07VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P1 12:21VANAaron Rome: Slashing2 min
  9. P1 18:43CGYCory Sarich: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P2 2:33VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 2:33CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 10:38VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 13:07VANKyle Wellwood: Too many men on the ice2 min
  14. P3 14:08CGYCurtis Glencross: Tripping2 min
  15. P3 15:48CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min · PPG
  16. P3 16:38CGYDustin Boyd: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  17. P3 18:02VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANCGY
29Shots on goal24
2.5Expected goals2.8
55Shot attempts56
24Faceoffs won27
5Power plays6
27Penalty minutes25
13Hits20
17Blocked shots13
3Giveaways7
4Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.8 xGVAN 2.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #194 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.55 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.

CGY winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).