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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 16, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Minnesota Wild 2, Edmonton Oilers 5

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.

EDM winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN05115111231
EDM043728519

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:49EDMMike ComrieAssists: Robert Nilsson, Jason Strudwick · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P2 11:45EDMDustin PennerAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P2 16:41MINBenoit PouliotAssists: Eric Belanger, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
  4. P2 19:17EDMGilbert BruleGWGAssists: Ryan Stone, Jean-Francois Jacques · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–3
  5. P3 3:35MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P3 11:58EDMDustin PennerAssists: Sam Gagner, Lubomir Visnovsky · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
  7. P3 13:49EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Ryan Stone, Jean-Francois Jacques · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 1:19MINJosh Harding: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 14:04MINShane Hnidy: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 6:26EDMJason Strudwick: Cross checking2 min
  4. P3 0:20EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Slashing2 min
  5. P3 3:20EDMShawn Horcoff: Holding2 min · PPG
  6. P3 7:39MINAndy Hilbert: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 8:36EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 13:59MINMikko Koivu: Interference2 min
  9. P3 17:31MINDerek Boogaard: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Brule
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINEDM
31Shots on goal19
2.1Expected goals2.5
54Shot attempts53
25Faceoffs won31
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
17Hits14
18Blocked shots8
15Giveaways18
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.5 xGMIN 2.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 54/100 · #562 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.

EDM winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).