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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 17, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1

Away

New York Rangers

4

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.

TOR winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR1821119428
TOR014111010135

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:00NYRBrandon DubinskyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:36NYRMarc StaalGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P2 5:47NYRMichael Del ZottoPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Vinny Prospal · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
  4. P2 6:08TORIan WhiteAssists: Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
  5. P3 2:26NYREnver LisinAssists: Wade Redden, Michal Rozsival · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 6:56NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Interference2 min
  2. P1 11:28TORJason Blake: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 13:37NYRMichael Del Zotto: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 14:42NYRBrian Boyle: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 15:30TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 5:02TORViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 6:29NYRDonald Brashear: Charging2 min
  8. P2 11:04NYRArtem Anisimov: Holding2 min
  9. P2 13:45TORLuke Schenn: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 2:41NYRMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Wallin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRTOR
28Shots on goal35
1.9Expected goals3.4
57Shot attempts70
37Faceoffs won24
4Power plays6
12Penalty minutes8
30Hits17
15Blocked shots15
7Giveaways15
4Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.4 xGNYR 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #896 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.95 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.

TOR winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).