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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 17, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Ottawa Senators 3, Montréal Canadiens 1

Away

Ottawa Senators

3

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.

MTL winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT1318110321
MTL1130708128

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:16OTTChris NeilAssists: Mike Fisher, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:33MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Scott Gomez, Jaroslav Spacek · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:44OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPGWGAssists: Alex Kovalev, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
  4. P3 11:28OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Mike Fisher, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 5:22OTTJonathan Cheechoo: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 12:21OTTChris Neil: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P1 12:26OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 19:55OTTNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 3:10MTLJaroslav Spacek: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 3:31MTLJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 5:32MTLHal Gill: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 6:59MTLBrian Gionta: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 16:05OTTJarkko Ruutu: Misconduct10 min
  10. P3 4:25MTLPaul Mara: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTMTL
21Shots on goal28
1.9Expected goals2.4
44Shot attempts66
23Faceoffs won28
5Power plays4
18Penalty minutes10
14Hits19
26Blocked shots12
12Giveaways12
2Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.4 xGOTT 1.9 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 32/100 · #850 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.15 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.

MTL winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).