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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 17, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Carolina Hurricanes 0, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

0

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.

NJD winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR0907010026
NJD01105213229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 0:26NJDJamie LangenbrunnerGWGAssists: Rob Niedermayer, Zach Parise · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P3 19:20NJDZach PariseENAssists: Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.71 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 8:25CARAndrew Alberts: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 8:25NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 12:13CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min
  4. P2 9:41NJDRod Pelley: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 17:41CARJoni Pitkanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P3 1:36NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 7:44CARScott Walker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 8:01CARRod Brind'Amour: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARNJD
26Shots on goal29
1.8Expected goals3.7
38Shot attempts46
16Faceoffs won26
2Power plays4
13Penalty minutes9
5Hits16
8Blocked shots5
1Giveaways9
6Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 3.7 xGCAR 1.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1108 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.75 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.

NJD winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).