Sat, Oct 17, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 08 | 313 | 03 | 2 | 429 |
| DET | 113 | 110 | 17 | 01 | 1 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 1:14DETTodd BertuzziPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 9:06COLCody McLeodAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 11:45COLMatt DucheneAssists: Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 13:37DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Jason Williams, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 17:28COLCody McLeodAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Jason Williams scored
- 2. COL Marek Svatos scored
- 3. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 4. COL Milan Hejduk scored
- 5. DET Ville Leino stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:28DETTodd Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:24COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 17:24DETBrad May: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:19COLMatt Hendricks: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:46DETKirk Maltby: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:49COLKyle Quincey: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:29DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:09COLMarek Svatos: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draper won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).