Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 17, 2009·United Center, Chicago

Dallas Stars 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3

Away

Dallas Stars

4

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.

CHI winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL0539111425
CHI01428110332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:17DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Fabian Brunnstrom, Karlis Skrastins · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:10DALMike RibeiroAssists: Matt Niskanen, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
  3. P2 5:44CHITroy BrouwerUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P2 9:31DALToby PetersenAssists: Krys Barch, Mark Fistric · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P2 16:24CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
  6. P3 10:27DALStephane RobidasGWGAssists: Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
  7. P3 15:32CHINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Dave Bolland, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 16:16DALTom Wandell: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 2:45DALTom Wandell: Holding2 min
  3. P2 12:05CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 18:41DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 1:13CHIAndrew Ladd: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 2:59CHIBrent Seabrook: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 7:34CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 16:38CHIBrent Sopel: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 17:49DALBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
  10. P3 0:00DALBrenden Morrow: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALCHI
25Shots on goal32
2.4Expected goals2.2
47Shot attempts54
18Faceoffs won27
5Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
15Hits23
13Blocked shots15
2Giveaways9
1Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 2.2 xGDAL 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 59/100 · #514 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.63 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.

CHI winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).