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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 17, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

St. Louis Blues 5, Anaheim Ducks 0

Away

St. Louis Blues

5

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.

ANA winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL1821726531
ANA0140408026

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:25STLPatrik BerglundPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:35STLCarlo ColaiacovoPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Andy McDonald · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
  3. P2 5:28STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Erik Johnson, David Backes · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
  4. P3 0:23STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.07 xG4–0
  5. P3 11:32STLT.J. OshieAssists: Keith Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.30 xG5–0
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 0:43STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 3:15ANAEvgeny Artyukhin: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P1 7:20STLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 11:43STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Interference2 min
  5. P2 1:42ANARyan Whitney: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 10:34STLDarryl Sydor: High sticking double minor4 min
  7. P2 12:40ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 18:21ANAJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 4:26STLBrad Winchester: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P3 4:26ANACorey Perry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  11. P3 6:54ANAEvgeny Artyukhin: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 9:31ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 9:31STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 14:54ANAEvgeny Artyukhin: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Marchant
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLANA
31Shots on goal26
4.3Expected goals2.2
63Shot attempts41
20Faceoffs won26
6Power plays5
17Penalty minutes19
18Hits24
8Blocked shots8
5Giveaways11
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.2 xGSTL 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANASTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 8/100 · #1141 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.68 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.

ANA winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).