Mon, Oct 19, 2009·Madison Square Garden, New York
San Jose Sharks 7, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 28 | 310 | 212 | 730 |
| NYR | 29 | 011 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:17NYRChris DruryAssists: Marc Staal, Sean Avery · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 8:34NYRMichael Del ZottoPPAssists: Ales Kotalik, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P1 12:49SJSBrad StaubitzAssists: Jody Shelley · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 18:12SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Jason Demers, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 1:19SJSJed OrtmeyerAssists: Benn Ferriero, Kent Huskins · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 6:05SJSDevin SetoguchiPPGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.44 xG4–2
- P2 17:21SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Patrick Marleau, Douglas Murray · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 3:46SJSRyan VesceAssists: Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.15 xG6–2
- P3 17:12NYREnver LisinAssists: Sean Avery, Matt Gilroy · Slap, 0.08 xG6–3
- P3 18:05SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Jason Demers, Devin Setoguchi · Snap, 0.17 xG7–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:30SJSDan Boyle: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:12NYRChris Higgins: Holding2 min
- P1 16:14NYRWade Redden: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:09SJSBrad Staubitz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:56NYRMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23NYRSean Avery: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:19NYRSean Avery: Holding2 min
- P2 18:42SJSEvgeni Nabokov: Interference2 min
- P3 14:13NYRDonald Brashear: Holding2 min
- P3 18:49NYRVinny Prospal: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).