Skip to content
Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 19, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Vancouver Canucks 1, Edmonton Oilers 2

Away

Vancouver Canucks

1

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.

EDM winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN111013016140
EDM01118111230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:32VANSteve BernierAssists: Kyle Wellwood · Snap, 0.32 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:26EDMPatrick O'SullivanAssists: Denis Grebeshkov · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P3 10:33EDMSam GagnerGWGAssists: Jean-Francois Jacques, Patrick O'Sullivan · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 2:50VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:50EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:41VANAlexandre Burrows: Elbowing2 min
  4. P1 16:18EDMMike Comrie: Holding2 min
  5. P2 5:03EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 7:54VANMichael Grabner: Interference2 min
  7. P2 8:02EDMMike Comrie: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 14:50EDMNikolai Khabibulin: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 19:10VANRyan Kesler: Interference2 min
  10. P2 19:59EDMMike Comrie: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Gagner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANEDM
40Shots on goal30
3.4Expected goals3.1
74Shot attempts56
35Faceoffs won20
5Power plays3
11Penalty minutes15
11Hits15
14Blocked shots17
12Giveaways21
2Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.1 xGVAN 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 36/100 · #795 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.

EDM winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).