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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 20, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Atlanta Thrashers 1, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Final

Shootout

Home

Montréal Canadiens

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 83% of the time.

MTL winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ATL0706110000123
MTL1801307072235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:44MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P3 6:06ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Rich Peverley, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. MTL Michael Cammalleri stopped
  2. 2. ATL Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
  3. 3. MTL Scott Gomez scored
  4. 4. ATL Rich Peverley stopped
  5. 5. MTL Brian Gionta scored
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 2:23MTLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 2:58ATLTodd White: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 4:06MTLRoman Hamrlik: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 6:12ATLTodd White: High sticking2 min
  5. P1 11:32ATLEric Boulton: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 6:39MTLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 6:39ATLColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 6:39MTLPaul Mara: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 6:39ATLChristoph Schubert: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 6:39MTLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 13:52ATLToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
  12. P2 19:23MTLHal Gill: Holding2 min
  13. P3 11:06ATLEvander Kane: Interference2 min
  14. OT 2:25ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: Boarding5 min
  15. OT 2:25MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
  16. OT 2:25ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLMTL
23Shots on goal35
1.6Expected goals3.7
61Shot attempts74
27Faceoffs won22
4Power plays5
29Penalty minutes14
21Hits18
20Blocked shots26
20Giveaways22
5Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.7 xGATL 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 39/100 · #752 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.33 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 83% of the time.

MTL winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).