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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 20, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Calgary Flames 6

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.

CGY winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ110210010330
CGY3111427622

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:42CGYDaymond LangkowAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:57CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Craig Conroy, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P1 6:08CBJRick NashSHAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Mathieu Roy · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–2
  4. P1 11:24CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Craig Conroy, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
  5. P2 0:52CBJDerick BrassardPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Kristian Huselius · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P2 1:40CBJJakub VoracekPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
  7. P2 13:44CGYDion PhaneufGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Rene Bourque · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
  8. P3 12:46CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Fredrik Sjostrom · Snap, 0.05 xG3–5
  9. P3 15:55CGYFredrik SjostromAssists: Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–6
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 4:08CBJMarc Methot: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 4:45CBJFedor Tyutin: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 11:01CGYCory Sarich: Interference2 min
  4. P1 11:01CBJKristian Huselius: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 14:19CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
  6. P1 17:44CGYOlli Jokinen: Interference2 min
  7. P1 0:00CGYRobyn Regehr: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  8. P2 0:25CGYDaymond Langkow: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 4:41CBJDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 15:01CGYRene Bourque: Slashing2 min
  11. P2 18:49CGYDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
  12. P2 18:55CGYDaymond Langkow: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 2:24CBJJared Boll: Too many men on the ice2 min
  14. P3 19:19CGYMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 19:19CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 19:19CBJDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Pahlsson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJCGY
30Shots on goal22
2.3Expected goals2.0
53Shot attempts47
31Faceoffs won25
7Power plays5
17Penalty minutes21
8Hits12
13Blocked shots13
5Giveaways14
7Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.0 xGCBJ 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #188 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.52 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.

CGY winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).