Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 21, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Nashville Predators 2, Boston Bruins 3

Away

Nashville Predators

2

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.

BOS winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH17110013230
BOS0521319327

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:55NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: David Legwand, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:26BOSMichael RyderAssists: Brad Marchand, Derek Morris · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:17NSHColin WilsonAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Tip-in, 0.47 xG2–1
  4. P2 12:38BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Zdeno Chara · Tip-in, 0.33 xG2–2
  5. P3 8:33BOSSteve BeginGWGAssists: Daniel Paille · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 3:46BOSDerek Morris: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 3:40BOSMichael Ryder: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P2 12:52BOSMark Stuart: Interference2 min
  4. P3 2:30NSHCody Franson: Holding2 min
  5. P3 5:57NSHRyan Suter: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHBOS
30Shots on goal27
2.5Expected goals1.4
43Shot attempts42
21Faceoffs won34
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
15Hits17
11Blocked shots7
6Giveaways4
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 1.4 xGNSH 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #593 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.65 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 31% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.

BOS winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).