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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 21, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Carolina Hurricanes 3, New York Islanders 4 (SO)

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Islanders

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.

NYI winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CAR08117210030338
NYI1132706032429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:11NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Andy Sutton · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:34CARMatt CullenPPAssists: Eric Staal, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:32NYITim JackmanAssists: Nate Thompson, Richard Park · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:21NYIAndy SuttonAssists: Jack Hillen, Blake Comeau · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
  5. P3 14:01CAREric StaalAssists: Ray Whitney, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P3 15:03CARJussi JokinenAssists: Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. NYI Jeff Tambellini scored
  2. 2. CAR Sergei Samsonov stopped
  3. 3. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 9:15CARStephane Yelle: Holding2 min
  2. P1 12:30NYIBrendan Witt: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 12:30CARScott Walker: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:50NYIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 4:19NYIBlake Comeau: Interference2 min · PPG
  6. P3 0:37NYIMark Streit: Holding2 min
  7. P3 7:22NYIAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 9:05CARSergei Samsonov: Too many men on the ice2 min
  9. P3 15:47CARRay Whitney: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARNYI
38Shots on goal29
3.6Expected goals3.0
71Shot attempts42
20Faceoffs won44
4Power plays3
11Penalty minutes13
32Hits27
4Blocked shots18
11Giveaways14
19Takeaways30

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 3.0 xGCAR 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYICAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #165 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.11 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.

NYI winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).