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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 21, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Buffalo Sabres 5, Florida Panthers 2

Away

Buffalo Sabres

5

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.

FLA winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF51601307536
FLA117012114243

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:11BUFMike GrierAssists: Tim Kennedy, Jochen Hecht · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 1:56BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Tim Connolly, Chris Butler · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
  3. P1 4:37BUFMatt EllisGWGAssists: Patrick Kaleta, Henrik Tallinder · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
  4. P1 10:20BUFTyler MyersAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Derek Roy · Slap, 0.05 xG4–0
  5. P1 14:11FLASteve ReinprechtAssists: Michael Frolik, Rostislav Olesz · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–1
  6. P1 16:48BUFThomas VanekAssists: Drew Stafford, Steve Montador · Tip-in, 0.36 xG5–1
  7. P3 17:47FLARostislav OleszAssists: David Booth, Ville Koistinen · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–2
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 1:27FLAKamil Kreps: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 6:33BUFSteve Montador: Interference2 min
  3. P1 7:31BUFHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 14:22BUFTim Kennedy: Interference2 min
  5. P1 17:38BUFJason Pominville: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 7:05BUFHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 11:19FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
  8. P2 13:29FLAJordan Leopold: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P3 12:59FLANathan Horton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P3 12:59BUFPatrick Kaleta: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  11. P3 15:05FLANathan Horton: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 15:05FLANathan Horton: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 15:05BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 15:13FLANathan Horton: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 15:19BUFClarke MacArthur: Interference2 min
  16. P3 15:19BUFClarke MacArthur: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  17. P3 15:19BUFClarke MacArthur: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Connolly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFFLA
36Shots on goal43
3.5Expected goals3.6
55Shot attempts69
32Faceoffs won28
4Power plays7
28Penalty minutes22
14Hits30
10Blocked shots9
3Giveaways10
2Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.6 xGBUF 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLABUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 24/100 · #927 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.72 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.

FLA winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).