Wed, Oct 21, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 218 | 08 | 03 | 0 | 235 |
| MIN | 113 | 04 | 19 | 00 | 1 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44MINBrent BurnsPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 4:25COLDarcy TuckerAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 18:07COLKyle QuinceyAssists: Cody McLeod, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 15:09MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Antti Miettinen, Marek Zidlicky · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 2. COL Marek Svatos stopped
- 3. MIN Martin Havlat stopped
- 4. COL Milan Hejduk stopped
- 5. MIN Marek Zidlicky stopped
- 6. COL Wojtek Wolski stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:28COLTJ Galiardi: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 7:04MINGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:20COLDarcy Tucker: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:49COLAdam Foote: Interference2 min
- P1 16:12COLMatt Duchene: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:38MINDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:38COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:43COLCody McLeod: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 18:26MINJames Sheppard: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:59COLMarek Svatos: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:51COLWojtek Wolski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).