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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 21, 2009·United Center, Chicago

Vancouver Canucks 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 81% of the time.

CHI winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN06112213331
CHI1101406220

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:26CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Cam Barker, John Madden · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:46VANSteve BernierPPAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Mikael Samuelsson · Snap, 0.41 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:51CHITroy BrouwerAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P3 12:16VANMichael GrabnerPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P3 15:18VANMikael SamuelssonGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:59VANAaron Rome: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 19:28CHIDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:51VANMikael Samuelsson: Holding2 min
  4. P2 11:56CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 2:51VANShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
  6. P3 3:45VANWillie Mitchell: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 5:55CHIKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 5:55CHIKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 5:55VANWillie Mitchell: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 8:52CHIDustin Byfuglien: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  11. P3 12:35CHICam Barker: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackCHI attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANCHI
31Shots on goal20
3.7Expected goals1.8
55Shot attempts42
23Faceoffs won31
6Power plays4
10Penalty minutes14
19Hits32
11Blocked shots19
2Giveaways4
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 1.8 xGVAN 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #377 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.92 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 16% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 81% of the time.

CHI winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).