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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 21, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

Dallas Stars 4, Anaheim Ducks 2

Away

Dallas Stars

4

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.

ANA winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL116211111438
ANA0517114226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:01DALLoui ErikssonAssists: James Neal, Tom Wandell · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:17DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
  3. P2 8:53DALTrevor DaleyPPGWGAssists: James Neal, Steve Ott · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
  4. P2 17:52ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Ryan Whitney, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
  5. P3 8:35ANAJoffrey LupulAssists: Corey Perry · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:51DALSteve OttENAssists: Loui Eriksson, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 5:47ANATodd Marchant: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 9:56ANABrendan Mikkelson: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 12:24ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 12:24DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 3:02DALFrancis Wathier: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 3:02ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 5:01DALBrian Sutherby: Cross checking2 min
  8. P2 8:06ANABrendan Mikkelson: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALANA
38Shots on goal26
3.7Expected goals2.6
51Shot attempts53
29Faceoffs won24
3Power plays1
12Penalty minutes16
11Hits30
8Blocked shots8
7Giveaways12
3Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.6 xGDAL 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANADAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 63/100 · #448 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.11 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.

ANA winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).