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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 22, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

New York Islanders 1, Montréal Canadiens 5

Away

New York Islanders

1

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 82% of the time.

MTL winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI0705110122
MTL215115212542

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:55MTLScott GomezAssists: Jaroslav Spacek · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:36MTLMarc-Andre BergeronPPGWGAssists: Paul Mara, Glen Metropolit · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P2 3:34MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Glen Metropolit · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
  4. P3 0:54NYIJosh BaileySHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
  5. P3 10:35MTLMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
  6. P3 12:59MTLMaxim LapierreAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 8:43NYIMatt Moulson: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 12:46MTLHal Gill: Holding2 min
  3. P1 17:57NYIFreddy Meyer: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 4:09MTLKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 4:09NYINate Thompson: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 4:09NYINate Thompson: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 8:08NYIBrendan Witt: Interference2 min
  8. P3 0:42NYIFrans Nielsen: Too many men on the ice2 min
  9. P3 3:57MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 10:09NYIKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 16:40MTLJaroslav Spacek: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIMTL
22Shots on goal42
1.6Expected goals3.6
44Shot attempts81
27Faceoffs won30
3Power plays6
17Penalty minutes11
17Hits16
29Blocked shots12
23Giveaways13
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.6 xGNYI 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #935 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.65 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 82% of the time.

MTL winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).