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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 22, 2009·Madison Square Garden, New York

New Jersey Devils 4, New York Rangers 2

Away

New Jersey Devils

4

Final

Home

New York Rangers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.

NYR winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD2806211425
NYR07213010230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:11NJDZach PariseAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Rob Niedermayer · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:10NJDNiclas BergforsAssists: David Clarkson, Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
  3. P2 1:47NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Ales Kotalik, Vinny Prospal · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 14:25NYRAles KotalikPPAssists: Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:51NJDDainius ZubrusGWGAssists: Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:19NJDZach PariseENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 5:26NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 5:26NJDMike Mottau: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 7:44NYRAles Kotalik: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 1:40NJDMike Mottau: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 10:04NJDRob Niedermayer: Boarding2 min
  6. P3 19:36NJDJohnny Oduya: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Dubinsky
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDNYR
25Shots on goal30
3.9Expected goals2.7
50Shot attempts53
27Faceoffs won25
1Power plays3
11Penalty minutes7
28Hits34
15Blocked shots12
2Giveaways1
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 2.7 xGNJD 3.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #427 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.39 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.

NYR winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).