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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 22, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Boston Bruins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.

PHI winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS1621008020326
PHI112215010021439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:03PHIChris ProngerAssists: Matt Carle, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:26BOSDerek MorrisPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Marco Sturm · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 7:36BOSMatt HunwickAssists: David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
  4. P2 8:41PHIDarroll PoweAssists: Daniel Carcillo, Ole-Kristian Tollefsen · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
  5. P2 13:06PHIArron AshamAssists: Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, Danny Syvret · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P2 16:26BOSSteve BeginAssists: Byron Bitz, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
  2. 2. BOS Blake Wheeler stopped
  3. 3. PHI Mike Richards stopped
  4. 4. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
  5. 5. PHI Claude Giroux scored
  6. 6. BOS Michael Ryder stopped
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 5:25BOSDaniel Paille: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 16:52PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P2 17:02BOSDennis Wideman: Interference2 min
  4. P3 4:07PHIOle-Kristian Tollefsen: Fighting5 min
  5. P3 4:07BOSTrent Whitfield: Fighting5 min
  6. P3 18:23PHISimon Gagne: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Marchand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSPHI
26Shots on goal39
2.9Expected goals3.8
59Shot attempts72
35Faceoffs won43
2Power plays2
9Penalty minutes9
16Hits20
16Blocked shots22
7Giveaways6
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.8 xGBOS 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #252 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.06 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 33% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.

PHI winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).