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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 22, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Washington Capitals 5, Atlanta Thrashers 4

Away

Washington Capitals

5

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.

ATL winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH2936013528
ATL2907210426

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:02WSHEric FehrAssists: Jeff Schultz · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:09ATLMaxim AfinogenovPPAssists: Nik Antropov · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P1 8:00WSHAlexandre GirouxAssists: Keith Aucoin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P1 17:02ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Nik Antropov, Maxim Afinogenov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P2 10:20WSHJeff SchultzAssists: Semyon Varlamov · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
  6. P2 11:34WSHMatt BradleyAssists: Jeff Schultz, David Steckel · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
  7. P2 11:48WSHChris ClarkGWGAssists: Mike Green · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–2
  8. P3 4:51ATLZach BogosianSHAssists: Colby Armstrong, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–3
  9. P3 19:21ATLIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Vyacheslav Kozlov · Slap, 0.03 xG5–4
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 4:06WSHShaone Morrisonn: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 4:37ATLChristoph Schubert: Holding2 min
  3. P1 8:16ATLColby Armstrong: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 17:14ATLEvander Kane: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 4:21ATLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 8:08WSHMilan Jurcina: Holding2 min
  7. P2 12:33WSHBrendan Morrison: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 15:37WSHMike Knuble: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 3:24ATLMarty Reasoner: Interference2 min
  10. P3 9:37WSHMilan Jurcina: Interference2 min
  11. P3 15:19ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 16:11ATLPavel Kubina: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 17:18WSHMike Knuble: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 19:03WSHJeff Schultz: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  15. P3 19:30WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Laing won the faceoff against Reasoner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHATL
28Shots on goal26
3.6Expected goals2.4
53Shot attempts52
33Faceoffs won31
7Power plays8
16Penalty minutes14
5Hits12
12Blocked shots14
2Giveaways14
8Takeaways19

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.4 xGWSH 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #171 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.66 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.

ATL winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).