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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 22, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Nashville Predators 6, Ottawa Senators 5 (OT)

Away

Nashville Predators

6

Final

Overtime

Home

Ottawa Senators

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.

OTT winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NSH3801121513637
OTT0701351200532

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:03NSHRyan SuterAssists: Colin Wilson, Dave Scatchard · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:09NSHCody FransonAssists: J-P Dumont · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P1 10:52NSHJ-P DumontAssists: Joel Ward · Tip-in, 0.34 xG3–0
  4. P3 1:11OTTChris CampoliPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson · Slap, 0.17 xG3–1
  5. P3 4:06OTTNick FolignoAssists: Peter Regin · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
  6. P3 8:10OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
  7. P3 11:27NSHShea WeberAssists: Alexander Sulzer, J-P Dumont · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
  8. P3 15:40OTTAnton VolchenkovAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
  9. P3 19:00NSHRyan SuterPPAssists: J-P Dumont, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
  10. P3 19:58OTTChris PhillipsSHAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–5
  11. OT 2:11NSHShea WeberPPGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, J-P Dumont · Slap, 0.07 xG6–5
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 17:43NSHJ-P Dumont: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P2 5:19NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 8:07OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
  4. P2 13:22NSHCal O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 0:43NSHRyan Suter: Holding2 min · PPG
  6. P3 0:43NSHSteve Sullivan: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 2:29NSHDave Scatchard: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 2:36OTTAlex Kovalev: Holding2 min
  9. P3 4:29OTTMike Fisher: Holding2 min
  10. P3 12:14OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 12:14NSHJerred Smithson: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 12:14OTTNick Foligno: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 12:14NSHJerred Smithson: Misconduct10 min
  14. P3 17:01OTTChris Phillips: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  15. P3 18:40OTTRyan Shannon: Too many men on the ice2 min
  16. OT 1:29OTTMatt Carkner: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHOTT
37Shots on goal32
3.5Expected goals2.2
58Shot attempts48
36Faceoffs won39
6Power plays6
24Penalty minutes24
5Hits24
9Blocked shots10
8Giveaways17
13Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.2 xGNSH 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 100/100 · #1 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.65 · 11 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +49 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.

OTT winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).