Thu, Oct 22, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 112 | 111 | 234 |
| TBL | 27 | 19 | 29 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30TBLJames WrightAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:01TBLRyan MaloneAssists: David Hale, Steve Downie · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 12:34SJSRyan VesceAssists: Kent Huskins, Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 16:39TBLSteven StamkosGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 2:54TBLAndrej MeszarosAssists: Todd Fedoruk, Stephane Veilleux · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 13:41SJSDan BoylePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:41TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:25SJSJody Shelley: Kneeing2 min
- P1 7:38TBLAndrej Meszaros: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:30TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P3 12:22TBLVincent Lecavalier: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).