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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 22, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Edmonton Oilers 6

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

4

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.

EDM winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ211210011432
EDM110212310632

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:58EDMSam GagnerAssists: Dustin Penner, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:02CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Jakub Voracek, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:36CBJRaffi TorresPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P2 2:05CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mathieu Roy · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
  5. P2 11:52CBJJason ChimeraAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Derek Dorsett · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–1
  6. P2 12:09EDMDustin PennerAssists: Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–2
  7. P2 18:55EDMAles HemskyPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
  8. P3 6:04EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
  9. P3 10:43EDMLubomir VisnovskyGWGAssists: Dustin Penner, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.06 xG4–5
  10. P3 19:43EDMRobert NilssonENAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Ladislav Smid · Backhand, 0.48 xG4–6
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 17:02CBJMike Blunden: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 17:47EDMDustin Penner: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  3. P1 0:00EDMLadislav Smid: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P1 0:00CBJDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  5. P2 6:20EDMEthan Moreau: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 8:31EDMLubomir Visnovsky: Holding2 min
  7. P2 13:43CBJKris Russell: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 16:37CBJJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 18:20CBJMarc Methot: Holding2 min · PPG
  10. P3 4:17CBJDerek Dorsett: High sticking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 13:54EDMNikolai Khabibulin: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 16:46CBJRaffi Torres: Elbowing2 min
  13. P3 18:58CBJJason Chimera: Elbowing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Jacques
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJEDM
32Shots on goal32
2.6Expected goals3.1
64Shot attempts55
31Faceoffs won27
4Power plays7
16Penalty minutes10
17Hits19
13Blocked shots20
12Giveaways22
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.1 xGCBJ 2.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 97/100 · #23 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.07 · 10 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 7% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.

EDM winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).