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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 23, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Florida Panthers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.

PIT winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA21201006010229
PIT08014215061343

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:39FLASteve ReinprechtPPAssists: Cory Stillman, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:16FLASteve ReinprechtAssists: Nathan Horton, Cory Stillman · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
  3. P3 2:14PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P3 16:41PITSidney CrosbySHAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. PIT Kris Letang stopped
  2. 2. FLA Steve Reinprecht stopped
  3. 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
  4. 4. FLA Ville Koistinen stopped
  5. 5. PIT Bill Guerin stopped
  6. 6. FLA Nathan Horton stopped
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 4:02PITMartin Skoula: Interference2 min
  2. P1 11:41PITAlex Goligoski: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 1:11FLADavid Booth: Interference2 min
  4. P2 4:41FLAKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 4:41PITChris Kunitz: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 11:04PITJordan Staal: Interference2 min
  7. P2 15:52FLANathan Horton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  8. P3 0:13FLAGregory Campbell: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 0:40FLARostislav Olesz: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 5:55FLACory Stillman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  11. P3 8:43PITMatt Cooke: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 8:43FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 9:38FLADavid Booth: Closing hand on puck2 min
  14. P3 15:04PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAPIT
29Shots on goal43
2.4Expected goals3.8
64Shot attempts75
36Faceoffs won42
4Power plays6
19Penalty minutes15
11Hits23
14Blocked shots24
3Giveaways12
0Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.8 xGFLA 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #238 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.93 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 10% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.

PIT winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).