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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 23, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Minnesota Wild 1, St. Louis Blues 3

Away

Minnesota Wild

1

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 80% of the time.

STL winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN0411304121
STL1151813326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:56STLJay McClementAssists: David Perron, Tyson Strachan · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:21STLDavid PerronSHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 18:42MINChuck KobasewAssists: Eric Belanger, Shane Hnidy · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:45STLBrad BoyesENAssists: Keith Tkachuk, Paul Kariya · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 5:24MINBrent Burns: Interference2 min
  2. P1 14:29MINNathan Smith: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 14:29STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:14MINJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 18:14STLBrad Winchester: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 18:14MINJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 2:39STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 4:22STLTyson Strachan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P2 7:44MINBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 11:43MINChuck Kobasew: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 15:21MINEric Belanger: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nolan won the faceoff against Backes
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINSTL
21Shots on goal26
2.1Expected goals4.0
43Shot attempts51
33Faceoffs won21
2Power plays5
17Penalty minutes11
24Hits19
11Blocked shots13
3Giveaways7
4Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 4.0 xGMIN 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1022 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.82 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 80% of the time.

STL winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).