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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 23, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Colorado Avalanche 5

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.

COL winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR211112113436
COL211213112536

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:16CARJoe CorvoPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Tuomo Ruutu · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:49CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Niclas Wallin, Stephane Yelle · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
  3. P1 16:16COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
  4. P1 16:47COLPaul StastnyAssists: Ryan Wilson · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P2 10:00COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
  6. P2 10:40COLWojtek WolskiAssists: Chris Stewart, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
  7. P2 16:15CARMatt CullenAssists: Scott Walker, Rod Brind'Amour · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–4
  8. P3 6:21COLPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: Milan Hejduk, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
  9. P3 8:40CARRay WhitneyAssists: Chad LaRose, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 2:37COLKyle Quincey: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  2. P1 19:07CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min
  3. P2 5:26CARTuomo Ruutu: Boarding5 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:26COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 5:26CARTuomo Ruutu: Game misconduct10 min
  6. P2 11:46CAREric Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. P2 17:37COLRyan Wilson: Holding2 min
  8. P3 3:03COLDavid Jones: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  9. P3 4:38CARChad LaRose: Holding2 min · PPG
  10. P3 6:14CARJoni Pitkanen: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 19:20CAREric Staal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  12. P3 19:20CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 19:31CAREric Staal: Misconduct10 min
  14. P3 19:41CAREric Staal: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARCOL
36Shots on goal36
3.3Expected goals3.8
64Shot attempts60
32Faceoffs won27
2Power plays7
47Penalty minutes6
26Hits15
16Blocked shots17
7Giveaways17
11Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.8 xGCAR 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 86/100 · #140 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.84 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 22% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.

COL winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).