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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

New York Rangers 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (OT)

Away

New York Rangers

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Montréal Canadiens

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.

MTL winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NYR312190300424
MTL163140400524

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:16MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:22NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Aaron Voros, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
  3. P1 14:42NYRAles KotalikAssists: Sean Avery, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
  4. P1 19:02NYRMatt GilroyAssists: Vinny Prospal, Marian Gaborik · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P2 8:48MTLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Maxim Lapierre · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
  6. P2 11:56NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Enver Lisin, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
  7. P2 15:26MTLMarc-Andre BergeronPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
  8. P2 18:58MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P2 6:44MTLJaroslav Spacek: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 9:17NYRChris Drury: Holding2 min
  3. P2 14:16MTLMatt D'Agostini: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 14:16NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min · PPG
  5. P2 14:16NYRVinny Prospal: Elbowing2 min
  6. P2 14:41NYRChris Higgins: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 4:10NYRMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 5:22MTLScott Gomez: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Metropolit won the faceoff against Dubinsky
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRMTL
24Shots on goal24
2.1Expected goals2.4
47Shot attempts56
26Faceoffs won28
2Power plays4
13Penalty minutes9
25Hits15
20Blocked shots12
12Giveaways17
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.4 xGNYR 2.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 91/100 · #93 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.18 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 14% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.

MTL winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).