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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Boston Bruins 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Ottawa Senators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.

OTT winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS081803001419
OTT0711328000328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 11:31OTTDaniel AlfredssonSHAssists: Mike Fisher, Chris Phillips · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
  2. P2 17:06BOSBlake WheelerAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Daniel Paille · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P3 9:14OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P3 11:13OTTMike FisherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3

Shootout

  1. 1. OTT Alex Kovalev stopped
  2. 2. BOS David Krejci stopped
  3. 3. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
  4. 4. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
  5. 5. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 11:39BOSByron Bitz: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 11:39OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 17:11OTTJarkko Ruutu: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 19:58BOSByron Bitz: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 6:42BOSMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 11:14OTTJonathan Cheechoo: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 14:26BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 14:26OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 18:52BOSSteve Begin: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 18:52OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 18:52BOSSteve Begin: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 13:21OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSOTT
19Shots on goal28
1.6Expected goals2.7
38Shot attempts45
25Faceoffs won20
4Power plays3
21Penalty minutes21
29Hits23
6Blocked shots9
9Giveaways7
5Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.7 xGBOS 1.6 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #189 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.21 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 0% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.

OTT winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).