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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Florida Panthers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5

Away

Florida Panthers

1

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 95% of the time.

PHI winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA1110204117
PHI110215110535

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:23PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:59FLADavid BoothAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Kamil Kreps · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:47PHIArron AshamGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P2 16:02PHISimon GagnePPAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–3
  5. P3 5:03PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Scott Hartnell, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 5:46PHIOle-Kristian Tollefsen: Interference2 min
  2. P1 17:37PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 6:50FLADominic Moore: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 12:04FLACory Stillman: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 14:57FLAKamil Kreps: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P2 17:05PHIMike Richards: Interference5 min
  7. P2 17:05PHIMike Richards: Game misconduct10 min
  8. P2 19:44PHIBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 1:43FLABryan McCabe: Interference2 min
  10. P3 3:57FLAGregory Campbell: Slashing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 6:13PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Pyorala
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAPHI
17Shots on goal35
1.6Expected goals5.6
43Shot attempts76
28Faceoffs won26
5Power plays5
10Penalty minutes23
8Hits10
27Blocked shots17
2Giveaways8
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 5.6 xGFLA 1.6 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #887 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.96 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 95% of the time.

PHI winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).