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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

San Jose Sharks 4, Atlanta Thrashers 3

Away

San Jose Sharks

4

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.

ATL winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS292609424
ATL0132713323

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:45SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Ryan Vesce, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:53SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–0
  3. P2 0:55SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dan Boyle, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
  4. P2 3:58ATLTodd WhiteUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
  5. P2 9:19SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
  6. P2 17:55ATLRich PeverleyPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
  7. P3 0:40ATLEvander KaneAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 5:43SJSBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 5:43ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 5:43SJSScott Nichol: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 12:32ATLAnssi Salmela: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 5:15ATLEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 8:36ATLToby Enstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 11:31SJSJed Ortmeyer: Interference2 min
  8. P2 14:01ATLRich Peverley: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 16:21SJSScott Nichol: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P2 18:33SJSDany Heatley: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Antropov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSATL
24Shots on goal23
2.7Expected goals1.5
42Shot attempts45
34Faceoffs won22
4Power plays4
13Penalty minutes13
10Hits8
16Blocked shots11
2Giveaways5
6Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 1.5 xGSJS 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #347 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.30 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.

ATL winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).