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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Vancouver Canucks 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.

VAN winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR01311306132
VAN2120903324

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:50VANMason RaymondAssists: Michael Grabner, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.46 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:32VANRyan KeslerPPGWGAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Michael Grabner · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P2 16:46TORNiklas HagmanPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 6:08TORJohn Mitchell: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 10:02TORIan White: High sticking double minor4 min
  3. P1 14:20TORLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
  4. P1 17:01TORRickard Wallin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  5. P2 1:30TORMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 4:13VANWillie Mitchell: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 11:27VANShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
  8. P2 14:34TORJamal Mayers: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 14:34VANSteve Bernier: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 16:39VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. P2 17:43TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 17:43VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 9:19TORWayne Primeau: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Primeau won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORVAN
32Shots on goal24
2.4Expected goals2.5
56Shot attempts48
27Faceoffs won22
3Power plays7
21Penalty minutes13
17Hits14
13Blocked shots11
7Giveaways4
9Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.5 xGTOR 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #1006 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.92 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.

VAN winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).