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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Dallas Stars 4, St. Louis Blues 1

Away

Dallas Stars

4

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.

STL winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL08213210431
STL01005113128

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:56DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:17DALLoui ErikssonPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Jeff Woywitka · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P3 4:48DALTom WandellAssists: Fabian Brunnstrom, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
  4. P3 9:51DALBrian SutherbyUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG4–0
  5. P3 16:10STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: David Perron, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
Penalties (26)
  1. P1 1:49STLDJ King: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:49DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 8:23DALStephane Robidas: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P1 13:45STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 13:45DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 18:11DALLoui Eriksson: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 8:41STLKeith Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  8. P2 8:41DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 8:41DALMark Fistric: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P2 8:41STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 8:41STLCam Janssen: Too many men on the ice2 min
  12. P2 8:41STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 11:24STLB.J. Crombeen: Slashing2 min
  14. P2 14:46DALStephane Robidas: Cross checking2 min
  15. P2 16:43STLErik Johnson: Cross checking2 min
  16. P3 2:05DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
  17. P3 7:07STLKeith Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
  18. P3 10:14STLCam Janssen: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 10:14STLCam Janssen: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 10:14STLCam Janssen: Misconduct10 min
  21. P3 12:18DALFabian Brunnstrom: Hooking2 min
  22. P3 18:40DALSteve Ott: Kneeing2 min
  23. P3 18:40DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
  24. P3 18:40STLB.J. Crombeen: Instigator2 min
  25. P3 18:40STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  26. P3 18:40STLB.J. Crombeen: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Tkachuk won the faceoff against Wandell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALSTL
31Shots on goal28
2.6Expected goals2.7
53Shot attempts58
30Faceoffs won32
7Power plays5
31Penalty minutes55
21Hits14
14Blocked shots11
1Giveaways5
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.7 xGDAL 2.6 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1027 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.78 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.

STL winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).