Sat, Oct 24, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 13 | 010 | 01 | 223 |
| MIN | 19 | 17 | 010 | 13 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32CARSergei SamsonovPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Joni Pitkanen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:52MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Shane Hnidy, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–1
- P2 1:51MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Owen Nolan, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 7:35CARJoni PitkanenAssists: Ray Whitney · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 1:55MINCal ClutterbuckGWGAssists: Greg Zanon, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:59CARJoni Pitkanen: Elbowing2 min
- P1 7:11CARRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:27MINShane Hnidy: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 11:32MINJohn Scott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:32CARTim Conboy: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:22CARAaron Ward: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:36MINJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:36CARTim Conboy: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:21CARStephane Yelle: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:48MINPetr Sykora: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:32MINEric Belanger: Holding2 min
- P2 15:00CARRod Brind'Amour: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:24CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:58MINPetr Sykora: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:58CARAaron Ward: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:21CARJoni Pitkanen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).