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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·United Center, Chicago

Nashville Predators 0, Chicago Blackhawks 2

Away

Nashville Predators

0

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.

CHI winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH01001106027
CHI011213010234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:20CHIDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, John Madden · Snap, 0.29 xG0–1
  2. P2 8:16CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Cam Barker · Snap, 0.38 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P2 12:42CHICam Barker: Roughing2 min
  2. P3 6:12CHIAndrew Ladd: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P3 11:33NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 12:09CHIDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
  5. P3 17:05NSHDavid Legwand: Holding2 min
  6. P3 17:54CHIDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 18:08NSHFrancis Bouillon: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackCHI attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHCHI
27Shots on goal34
3.0Expected goals3.5
45Shot attempts55
30Faceoffs won29
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
16Hits18
13Blocked shots6
1Giveaways7
0Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.5 xGNSH 3.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHINSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 0/100 · #1228 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.53 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.

CHI winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).