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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Detroit Red Wings 1, Colorado Avalanche 3

Away

Detroit Red Wings

1

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.

COL winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET012116020148
COL0511127323

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:09DETKris DraperAssists: Daniel Cleary, Jonathan Ericsson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 14:26COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P3 9:20COLChris StewartGWGAssists: TJ Galiardi, Kyle Cumiskey · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:00COLPaul StastnyENAssists: Scott Hannan, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 13:34COLPaul Stastny: High sticking double minor4 min
  2. P1 18:26DETBrett Lebda: High sticking double minor4 min
  3. P2 6:26COLMarek Svatos: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 16:21COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 0:25DETTomas Holmstrom: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 12:40COLPaul Stastny: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 14:37COLScott Hannan: Holding2 min
  8. P3 16:57COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 19:41COLScott Hannan: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETCOL
48Shots on goal23
3.0Expected goals1.9
81Shot attempts41
33Faceoffs won31
8Power plays3
6Penalty minutes16
13Hits12
13Blocked shots20
7Giveaways13
10Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 1.9 xGDET 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 38/100 · #758 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.32 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.

COL winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).