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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Edmonton Oilers 2, Calgary Flames 5

Away

Edmonton Oilers

2

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.

CGY winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM191907225
CGY19319110538

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:25EDMLubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:54CGYRene BourqueSHAssists: Daymond Langkow · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P2 3:53CGYNigel DawesAssists: Rene Bourque, Daymond Langkow · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P2 4:29CGYEric NystromGWGAssists: Dustin Boyd · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–3
  5. P2 10:23CGYDavid MossPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Jarome Iginla · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–4
  6. P2 18:35EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
  7. P3 12:27CGYNigel DawesPPAssists: Rene Bourque, Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 1:10CGYJarome Iginla: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  2. P1 3:28CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 3:28EDMSteve MacIntyre: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 10:09CGYAaron Johnson: Boarding2 min
  5. P1 19:53CGYJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 9:30EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 12:17EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 12:17EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 12:17CGYRene Bourque: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 17:41EDMLadislav Smid: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 17:41CGYMark Giordano: Fighting5 min · PPG
  12. P2 17:41CGYAaron Johnson: Cross checking2 min
  13. P2 17:41EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Roughing2 min
  14. P2 17:41CGYAaron Johnson: Roughing2 min
  15. P2 17:41EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Misconduct10 min
  16. P2 18:47CGYOlli Jokinen: Holding2 min
  17. P2 19:53CGYCory Sarich: High sticking double minor4 min
  18. P3 3:27EDMTom Gilbert: Holding2 min
  19. P3 3:38CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
  20. P3 10:31EDMShawn Horcoff: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCGY
25Shots on goal38
2.9Expected goals4.1
50Shot attempts53
28Faceoffs won35
8Power plays3
32Penalty minutes30
7Hits16
11Blocked shots9
4Giveaways4
0Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 4.1 xGEDM 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #580 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 39% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.

CGY winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).