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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

Columbus Blue Jackets 6, Anaheim Ducks 4

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

6

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.

ANA winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ09418210637
ANA18110218436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:12ANAJoffrey LupulAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Scott Niedermayer · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P2 8:12CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Marc Methot · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:26ANAScott NiedermayerPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:54CBJRick NashAssists: Marc Methot, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P2 16:45CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Antoine Vermette, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
  6. P2 19:42CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Antoine Vermette, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.21 xG4–2
  7. P3 4:56ANAJoffrey LupulAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
  8. P3 7:43ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Saku Koivu, Ryan Whitney · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–4
  9. P3 16:38CBJFedor TyutinGWGAssists: Rick Nash, Jason Chimera · Slap, 0.02 xG5–4
  10. P3 19:44CBJRick NashENAssists: Mike Commodore, Steve Mason · Snap, 0.68 xG6–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P2 3:52ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 11:34CBJAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 17:40ANABrendan Mikkelson: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 17:40CBJMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 1:54ANASaku Koivu: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 6:06CBJDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJANA
37Shots on goal36
2.4Expected goals1.8
53Shot attempts58
36Faceoffs won28
2Power plays2
6Penalty minutes6
22Hits25
9Blocked shots6
7Giveaways12
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 1.8 xGCBJ 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANACBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #31 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.32 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.

ANA winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).