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Ice Lab

Sun, Oct 25, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

San Jose Sharks 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1

Away

San Jose Sharks

4

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.

PHI winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS1929110428
PHI113010015138

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:20SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:44PHIDarroll PoweAssists: Mika Pyorala, Danny Syvret · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 7:51SJSManny MalhotraGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
  4. P2 10:05SJSManny MalhotraAssists: Patrick Marleau, Benn Ferriero · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
  5. P3 16:51SJSJed OrtmeyerAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 5:16PHIDanny Syvret: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:27SJSJody Shelley: Interference2 min
  3. P1 11:27SJSJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 11:27PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 14:56SJSDouglas Murray: Holding2 min
  6. P2 1:25PHIMike Richards: Charging2 min
  7. P2 4:24SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 17:04SJSDany Heatley: Interference2 min
  9. P2 17:04PHIScott Hartnell: Holding2 min
  10. P2 17:04PHIOle-Kristian Tollefsen: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 17:04SJSJason Demers: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 2:00PHIOle-Kristian Tollefsen: Cross checking2 min
  13. P3 5:06SJSBrad Staubitz: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 5:40PHIClaude Giroux: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Pyorala
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSPHI
28Shots on goal38
2.6Expected goals3.1
48Shot attempts67
41Faceoffs won23
4Power plays4
17Penalty minutes17
15Hits18
21Blocked shots12
8Giveaways7
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.1 xGSJS 2.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHISJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 32/100 · #846 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.08 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.

PHI winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).