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Ice Lab

Sun, Oct 25, 2009·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Los Angeles Kings 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.

LAK winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ0711217226
LAK2821027625

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:29LAKMichal HandzusAssists: Dustin Brown, Alex Frolov · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:18LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Davis Drewiske · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 5:33LAKJarret StollGWGAssists: Scott Parse, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
  4. P2 14:05CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Mike Commodore, Jason Chimera · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P2 19:03LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Jarret Stoll, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.08 xG1–4
  6. P3 9:48CBJKristian HuseliusPPAssists: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard · Wrap-around, 0.16 xG2–4
  7. P3 11:39LAKAlex FrolovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
  8. P3 17:58LAKAlex FrolovPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 1:17LAKScott Parse: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 11:04CBJRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P1 11:04CBJDerek Dorsett: Game misconduct10 min
  4. P1 11:04CBJJason Chimera: Misconduct10 min
  5. P1 19:35LAKWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 11:21LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 18:03CBJJakub Voracek: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  8. P2 18:28CBJMike Blunden: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 8:47LAKScott Parse: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 16:01CBJJason Chimera: Roughing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Umberger won the faceoff against Handzus
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJLAK
26Shots on goal25
1.9Expected goals2.4
46Shot attempts45
21Faceoffs won30
4Power plays4
28Penalty minutes8
25Hits25
11Blocked shots12
9Giveaways16
2Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 2.4 xGCBJ 1.9 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #592 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.73 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.

LAK winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).