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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 26, 2009·Madison Square Garden, New York

Phoenix Coyotes 2, New York Rangers 5

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Final

Home

New York Rangers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.

NYR winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX09211012232
NYR2521117523

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:31NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Brian Boyle, Donald Brashear · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:09NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Ales Kotalik · Snap, 0.24 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:05NYRVinny ProspalGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Enver Lisin · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
  4. P2 7:46NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Vinny Prospal, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.08 xG0–4
  5. P2 15:47PHXEd JovanovskiAssists: Shane Doan, Daniel Winnik · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
  6. P2 19:19PHXVernon FiddlerSHAssists: Daniel Winnik, Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
  7. P3 11:47NYREnver LisinAssists: Vinny Prospal, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.05 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 11:10PHXMartin Hanzal: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:40NYRVinny Prospal: Boarding2 min
  3. P1 12:16PHXMatthew Lombardi: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 18:47NYRSean Avery: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 1:24PHXSami Lepisto: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 6:49PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 11:52NYRAles Kotalik: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P2 18:09PHXZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 0:06NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 15:05NYRChris Drury: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 19:12NYRDonald Brashear: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Mueller won the faceoff against Dubinsky
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXNYR
32Shots on goal23
2.1Expected goals2.7
76Shot attempts51
21Faceoffs won28
5Power plays5
10Penalty minutes12
32Hits28
9Blocked shots29
2Giveaways3
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 2.7 xGPHX 2.1 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #459 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.69 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 60% of the time.

NYR winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).