Mon, Oct 26, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 111 | 17 | 02 | 231 |
| MTL | 112 | 012 | 15 | 12 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:34MTLJaroslav SpacekAssists: Glen Metropolit, Travis Moen · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 18:18NYIJeff TambelliniPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 7:44MTLTravis MoenAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Glen Metropolit · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 15:44NYIJeff TambelliniPPAssists: Matt Moulson · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–2
- OT 1:32MTLRoman HamrlikGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:05MTLMaxim Lapierre: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:50MTLMatt D'Agostini: Charging2 min
- P2 8:46MTLRoman Hamrlik: Holding2 min
- P2 9:08NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:56MTLMax Pacioretty: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 0:38NYIJon Sim: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:15MTLMatt D'Agostini: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:14MTLJaroslav Spacek: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:03MTLMichael Cammalleri: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Chipchura
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).